Economic times, any predictions?

User offline. Last seen 2 years 13 weeks ago.
Weedwacker
Number 746
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Conspirator for: 3 years 20 weeks
Posted on: January 3, 2011 - 9:20am

There is alot of talk about this spring's gas prices already, oil going up, food is going up.  The unraveling going on in Europe, the potential commercial real estate bubble in the states.  Inflation, deflation?  Where is this all heading, if anyplace?  It is hard to know about such things.   I have started taking a number of protective steps such as stocking food and supplies, gasoline, generator etc.  What do you think we are looking at in terms of U.S. and world economy?  Some big collapse?  Another Great Depression?  Extended recession?  Or nothing special, just more fluctuations and life goes on?

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That Guy
Number 663
Conspirator for: 4 years 13 weeks
Posted on: January 3, 2011 - 11:48am #1

I think we will have more frequent, more severe booms and busts.  It will have the overall effect of squeezing out even more money from the middle and working class and redistrubuting it in the top 1% of the population.  I think, we are still in a real estate bubble.  The government and the Fed are frantically trying to keep home prices from sliding.  However, when you compare home prices to income from say 40 years ago to what it is now you see the problem.  40 years ago you could buy a home for something like 1 years salary, the median income now is around 50K for a family while an average home is say 225K depending on area.  That is more than 4 times a year salary.  It consumes too much of discretionary spending for most families, especially if you want to save for retirement or a business venture ect.  So, in my mind, housing prices need at least another 50% price cut from todays prices.  That would devestate individuals, the economy, and worst of all the banksters.  They already got out of pricing mark to market, then had the Fed buy the loans at the bubble prices to the tune of a 2 trillion or so backdoor bailout to the banks.  Our entire economic system is based on consumerism and debt.  Niether are sustainable.  Wages are still dropping due to outsourcing and supply of workers.  Not to be a mysogonist, but it started with women entering the workforce for jobs that competed with men, a doubling of the workforce, then it was longer working hours for both earners in the 80's and early 90's, then you had the rapid increases in personal debt from the mid 90's to today.  These were all the dying throes of the middle class to maintain their standard of living.  During this same time executive pay went from about 35 times the average wage to 365 times the average wage.  Frankly, I don't think any executive is worth that much.  They are not that much more productive.  The next shoe to drop that will depress wages is austerity measures that will raise the SS retirement age.  So we will have more people not retiring, holding the hire wage jobs for longer.  This makes it harder for my generation and the ones behind me to save for the future.  The whole thing is just a house of cards, the trick is to be lucky enough to be in a seat when the music stops.  Unfortuneatly, as with the Citizens United case, corporations will have even more control of the government and the middle and working classes will be the ones holding the poop bomb without a seat.

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FUR3jr
Number 468
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Conspirator for: 5 years 26 weeks
Posted on: January 16, 2011 - 5:51am #2

"You want a winter prediction?  I'll give you a winter prediction: "It's gonna be cold.  It's gonna be gray, and it's gonna last you... the rest of your life."  Phil Conners as played by Bill Murray in the 1993 feature film "Groundhog Day"